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Latest indicators for Italy’s economy

Verantwortlicher Autor: Carlo Marino Rome, 14.03.2017, 08:30 Uhr
Presse-Ressort von: Dr. Carlo Marino Bericht 5749x gelesen

Rome [ENA] The latest indicators for Italy’s economy portray an uncertain representation of how it is progressing at the start of 2017. In January 2017 the Italian industrial production index seasonally adjusted decreased by 2.3% compared with the previous month and according to seasonally adjusted data released by ISTAT (The national statistics agency ) on Monday, 13th of March.

The percentage change of the average of the last three months with respect to the previous three months was +0.5%. The index measures the monthly evolution of the volume of industrial production (excluding construction). With effect from January 2013 the indices are calculated with reference to the base year 2010 using the Ateco 2007 classification. While the Italian industrial production dropped by 2.3 in the fourth quarter 2016, compared with the previous period, in seasonally-adjusted terms, exports increased for all macro-regions: +5.3% for South and Islands, +4.2% for Centre, +2.8% for North-West and +1.6% for North-East.

In the year 2016, compared with the previous year, exports increased for South (+8.5%), Centre (+2.1%) and North-East (+1.8%), decreased for Islands (-15.0%) while North-West recorded 0.0%.In the same period more relevant increases, according to their contribution to total export increment, are recorded for Basilicata (+53.5%), Lombardia (+0.8%), Emilia-Romagna (+1.5%), Friuli-Venezia Giulia (+6.3,%), Veneto (+1.3%), Abruzzo (+9.7%), Marche (+5.6%), Lazio (+3.0%) and Liguria (+7.7%) while relevant decreases were recorded for Sicilia (-17.3%), Piemonte (-3.0%) and Sardegna (-10.9%).It is the first year-on-year drop after five consecutive rises, including a 6.8% increase in December.

The national statistics agency said the fact that there were two more working days this year than last was a factor - the uncorrected year-on-year figure was up 5.7%. It’s likely that firms are also profiting from both the reduction in the corporate income tax rate and the introduction of a flat tax on small firms’ income included in the 2017 budget. The 2.3% drop in industrial production in January was the biggest month-on-month fall in five years, according to ISTAT data. The last time a bigger fall was registered was in January 2012, when production dropped 2.8%. Nevertheless, the average for the three months between November and January was still 0.5% higher than the previous three-month period.

Consumer confidence is less optimistic, likely inhibited by rising inflation and elevated unemployment. The mixed bag of economic signals at the start of this year comes on the back of preliminary estimates which show that the economy lost some steam in the final quarter of 2016. Italy continues to suffer from several structural weaknesses, such as a high tax burden and a dangerously-high public debt, which limit its potential GDP growth and therefore makes it much more challenging to defeat other fragilities, such as the recovery of its stressed banking system.

Last but not least, the new Article 24 bis of Italian consolidated law on income tax introduced by the new Italian Budget Law is the indicator of a favorable tax regime for “newly resident” individuals in Italy. It is inspired by the British resident non domiciled regime and other regimes effective in other EU countries, such as Portugal and Malta. It is obviously a regime for high-net-Worth individuals who transfer their fiscal residence in Italy and it targets investments and the consumption these people bring with them and whose goal is attracting wealth that would have never arrived in Italy.It can advantage people working in sports, arts, fashion or high income sectors and aims to attract the London-based wealthy put off by Brexit.

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